What Are the Odds? (by Peter A. Black)

Calgarian Barb Parker could scarcely believe her eyes when she saw her golf ball nestled in the bottom of the hole following her 125-yard drive. Yep, it was a hole-in-one. The Canadian snowbird was competing at a Tucson, Arizona, tournament in March this year. 

Understandably she was more than a little excited at her amazing (pardon the pun) ‘stroke of luck.’ Ms Parker moved on and nervously positioned herself to take a swipe towards her next hole. She swung and drove the ball into a breeze, up and over a ridge – a 136-yard drive. Where did that one

Source Credit: calgaryherald.com

go?

Her eyes scanned the green . . . no sign of her ball – at least, not until she got close enough to look down at the hole, and there it was, its shamrock emblem facing up, winking at her astonished gaze. A little excited? Barb Parker could hardly function for her next drive. And yes, she won. She later learned that the odds to landing two consecutive holes-in-one were 167,000,000 :1.

Our Western culture increasingly projects responses towards the Bible that range from indifference to scepticism and mistrust, and from negativism and disbelief to outright hostility. Some folk who identify themselves as Christian never crack open a Bible from one week or month to the other. (Simply stating a fact, not judging.) I’ve heard some people say that the Bible isn’t relevant to their lives.

North American TV Bible teachers and preachers and End-Times prophecy ‘specialists,’ might have wearied some folk and frightened others. But hold on; don’t throw away your Bible yet. If you don’t possess one, they’re readily available in Canada and the USA. (Also, BibleGateway dot com has versions galore you can read.)

Barb Parker’s amazing 167,000,000 :1 odds of her consecutive two holes-in-one fade into the mists of early morning fairways, compared to those of prophecies fulfilled in Jesus of Nazareth. That was established many decades ago, by the calculations of the eminently-credentialed Peter Stoner. (He’d been chairman of the mathematics and astronomy departments at Pasadena City College. In 1953 he moved to become chairman of the science division at Westmount College of Santa Barbara, California.

In Science Speaks** Stoner extrapolated that for just eight Old Testament prophecies concerning the Messiah to be fulfilled in Jesus, it would require a probability factor of 1 in 1 quintillion. That is, one chance in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000!

To help us get a handle on that Professor Stoner explained: If you were to cover the entire State of Texas with quarters two feet deep and send in a blind man to pick up just one coin, and that [specially] marked coin was the one he picked up; then that’s scale of probability involved here. (Since then others have calculated or else extrapolated much greater odds.)

Jesus of Nazareth beautifully fulfilled more than two hundred prophecies given during a period upwards of two thousand years, as recorded by a variety of writers and prophets from  contrasting social and educational backgrounds.

The mind seems incapable of conceiving the odds against those fulfilments occurring in one person during one narrow time frame – unless, of course, there is no coincidental factor, whatsoever. In Jesus the events were assuredly unfolding according to the Divine Plan.

Events unfolding from His final entry into Jerusalem through the days leading up to His betrayal, crucifixion, burial and resurrection, fulfilled so many prophecies that they would have required enormously greater odds than our Calgarian snowbird’s two consecutive holes-in-one.

That demands I seriously regard the biblical scriptures.

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*B. Parker two holes-in-one story constructed from various online media sources.

** Moody Press, Chicago, 1958

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Peter A. Black lives in Southwestern Ontario. He writes a weekly inspirational newspaper column, P-Pep! and is author of Raise Your Gaze ... Mindful Musings of a Grateful Heart, and Parables from the Pond. ~~+~~

 

Preface to my soon-to-be-published sequel "Restoring Health: body, mind and spirit' -HIRD

Preface

We have all been painfully stuck.  Being at a key transition-point in our lives, we do not know how to move forward, finding ourselves immobilized.[i] I have been there many times.  My perfectionism makes it worse.   A key turning point for me was when as I attended a Leadership Conference at the University of Kent in England.[ii]  Walking into a seminar, God ‘whispered’ to me that I would be receiving a message. The Rev Freda Meadows suddenly called me out of the crowd and gave me a specific prophetic message, saying:

You don’t need to run in keeping up with others.  Enter into God’s rest.  Keep your eye on the finishing line which is Him.  You will be moving into new things, having words of knowledge. You will be gifted in this area.  You are in an apprenticeship time at present.  You will disciple others.  You are a man of God’s Word, things of the Kingdom. You are a person of vision, a long-range visionary.  God is going to put you in a key place and you will find yourself training and discipling others.[iii]

I had no idea how powerfully God was going to use the 1998 Pre-Lambeth Leadership Conference.  Most of us as North American Anglicans were still stuck in the ‘inside strategy’ mindset.  Being conflict-avoiders, we were going to ‘fix’ the North American Anglican churches while still inside the old institution.  This virus of institutionalism can slip inside the mind of even the most sincere believer, turning us toxic.  It is so easy to become the hollow, stuffed men of TS Eliot’s poem: “We are the hollow men. We are the stuffed men Leaning together...”[iv]  We Canadians were still quite ‘gung-ho’ at the Canterbury Leadership Conference, but the Americans were unusually quiet. They lacked their usual American ‘get-up-and-go’ attitude.  When Americans go quiet, you can tell that something is up.

At the official Canadian night, Bishop Eddie Marsh of Central   Newfoundland invited the Americans to come up and share.  I will never forget how our American colleagues Bishop Alex Dickson and Dr. (now Bishop) John Rodgers stood up and repented to our African colleagues for the shame that the USA had brought on the Anglican Church, and for Bishop John Spong’s castigating African Anglicans as just one step out of animism and witchcraft.[v] 

“(Bishop Spong) has insulted you.  We are ashamed for him; we are ashamed for ourselves.  We ask your forgiveness and we assure you that he does not speak for us.”[vi] 

Hundreds of African bishops and clergy spontaneously flocked forward and hugged the Americans, weeping and declaring God’s forgiveness.  Todd Wetzel of Anglicans United said that ‘this was one of the American Church’s finest moments in decades.’  This prophetic action of repentance and forgiveness was a new beginning for Anglican Christians around the world.

I am convinced that we are not to despise prophecy, and that the prophetic gift is still in operation today.  Prophecy does not just address the global picture.  It can also address our personal situations, even regarding writing a book.  Through prayer, I have received very clear direction about the topic of this current book.[vii]   Pushing through our toxic stuckness is key to restoring health, and key to strengthening a new generation of healthy leaders.

The purpose of prophecy is to encourage, build, and strengthen.[viii]  Yes, all prophecies have to be tested.  As children of the New Covenant, we only prophesy in part.[ix]  Prophecies help me push through my ‘what ifs’ and ‘if onlys’.  In the 21^st century, a sensitive use of the gifts of prophecy and exhortation will be essential to getting unstuck, to becoming a healthier and more Christlike leader.  As Paul said to Timothy, by following prophecies made about us, we leaders more effectively ‘fight the good fight’ and live out our daily lives.[x]  Out of these prophetic encounters, I have become convinced that North America desperately needs to recover from its toxicity, and that the key to restoring its health is found in strengthening  a new generation of holistically healthy leaders, as illustrated in the person of Titus. 

The Rev. Dr. Ed Hird, Rector
BSW, MDiv, DMin
St. Simon's Church North Vancouver
Anglican Mission in Canada

p.s. In order to obtain a copy of the book ‘Battle for the Soul of Canada’, please send a $18.50 cheque to ‘ED HIRD’, #1008-555 West 28th Street, North Vancouver, BC V7N 2J7. For mailing the book to the USA, please send $20.00 USD. This can also be done by PAYPALusing the e-mailed_hird@telus.net . Be sure to list your mailing address. The Battle for the Soul of Canada e-book can be obtained for $9.99 CDN/USD.

-Click to download a complimentary PDF copy of the Battle for the Soul study guide : Seeking God’s Solution for a Spirit-Filled Canada

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[i] Terry B Walling, Stuck!, (ChurchSmart Resources, 2008),  p. XIII “Without transitions, and the paradigm shifts that occur, Christ followers would stay stuck!”,

[ii] This Pre-Lambeth Leadership Conference was jointly sponsored by Anglican Renewal Ministries/ARM and SOMA/Sharing of Ministries Abroad.  I was serving as the Chair of ARM Canada.

[iii] Freda Meadows ministers with the International New Wine Director Rev Bruce Collins  http://www.new-wine.org; Ten years later, the Rev Freda gave further insight into the 1998 Canterbury prophecy, saying:

“...the underlying thrust was to trust God for the outcome of the plans He had in using you.  While you were to do all that was necessary, it was not for you to try and make anything happen.  But you were to follow the Lord's leading using the gifts and skills He gave in the best way you knew and through what you had learned as your experience grew.”

[iv] http://poetry.poetryx.com/poems/784/

[v]  “African Christians? They're just a step up from witchcraft: What Bishop Spong had to say about his fellow Christians, John Spong interviewed by Andrew Carey, Church of England Newspaper, July 10^th 1998.  Newspaper & Andrew Carey. "They've moved out of animism into a very superstitious kind of Christianity. They've yet to face the intellectual revolution of Copernicus and Einstein that we've had to face in the developing world. That's just not on their radar screen."

[vi] Doug LeBlanc, Lambeth, 1998, “Episcopal Dissidenta, African Allies”, Dr Miranda Hassett, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill,  http://anglicanhistory.org/academic/hassett2004.pdf

[vii] On October 17th Wednesday 2008 while at the Anglican Coalition Clergy Retreat at Cedar Springs, I received a distinct impression from the Lord while in deep quiet group prayer: “Yes, it is Titus.”  While attending the Henry Wright ‘Be in Health’ conference, I heard a still small voice saying: “Write 3rd book on Titus for North American Audience.”

[viii] 1 Corinthians 14:3

[ix]  1st Thessalonians 5: 19-21: Do not put out the Spirit’s fire; do not treat prophecies with contempt. Test everything. Hold on to the good. Avoid every kind of evil.; 1 Corinthians 13:9.

[x] 1 Timothy 1:18, 4:14